As I am sure we have all realized that the 2008 Recession was not a normal recession and that the mechanisms that have caused it have not been corrected or are even being considered for repair.
Since it wasn’t a normal recession how can the economist state that we are out of it while it is still occurring?
You can’t believe the unemployment numbers because after you have exhausted your benefits you are no longer counted in the equation plus their is no way to track how many seekers have become so frustrated they have stopped looking. Also the numbers of job opening up are not high paying jobs and are fragile to say the least.
It has been said that the USA is the largest market for world products. This market is systematically being destroyed. The other markets have their share of problems caused by the same mechanisms that caused our recession so they are not capable of picking up the slack and emerging markets are not at a point to pick it up either. The largest potential market China is being protected by protectionism so it is hard to break into.
Our economy is on a roller-coaster ride. It is going to continue to fluctuate and oscillate for more years than I want to consider. One only has to average out the valleys and peaks and see that the slope of the line is not an upward trend but a slippery slope to oblivion.
Catch 22 or the vicious circle
For the market to survive they need customers to buy their products.
The customers need a means to earn money to have free cash to spend in the markets.
If markets lay off people it produces less customers for other markets which requires more layoffs.
Therefore you have a dwindling base of customers and shrinking markets.
To survive companies look at mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their position in the market which produces less customers for other markets AKA more layoffs.
In order for all markets to regain strength then all markets need to hire people to induce cash into the markets. This requires investors willing to wait for their returns while the market corrects.
Now in a normal recession only a few markets take a hit so the other markets and stronger companies in the hit market can pick up new employees while the market corrects and keeps things somewhat balanced.
In the 2008 recession every market took a hit and a large hit at that. One market took down another which took down another it was a domino effect.
Key markets that have been relied on in the past to signal recovery are struggling and are going through double digit trends of up and down. All markets are learning to run lean and mean so they are essentially shooting themselves in the foot because their customer base is shrinking in their largest market.
Simple supply and demand economics are in effect you have an increasing supply and a dwindling demand. One must entice demand to reduce the supply. The only problem these days is all the enticing in the world cannot overcome the loss of the customer base due to unemployment and the fear factor that employees have that they could loose their jobs tomorrow. SO markets continue to suffer.
Emerging markets do not have the customer base to pick up the slack and it could take years before that market is in a position to be as effective.
So investors and companies have a choice, they can continue to stick their heads in the sand and ignore the reality of what is going on or they can pool their resources to develop a plan on how to re-establish their greatest market.
Where do you fit into all this roller coaster ride.